Sunday, September 7, 2008
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Think, don't say
Westmoreland's use of the racist term 'uppity'might turn out to be a macaca moment for him. Certainly the Democrats should make every effort to make it so.
But really the fault here lies with the McCain campaign which for months now has been running adverts that are meant to make people think 'uppity' without saying 'uppity'. David Gergen pointed out that 'uppity' is the real message of the 'celebrity' ads.
The problem with a 'think don't say' strategy is that sooner or later someone is going to say what they are thinking. And then the fiction becomes much harder to sustain.
But really the fault here lies with the McCain campaign which for months now has been running adverts that are meant to make people think 'uppity' without saying 'uppity'. David Gergen pointed out that 'uppity' is the real message of the 'celebrity' ads.
The problem with a 'think don't say' strategy is that sooner or later someone is going to say what they are thinking. And then the fiction becomes much harder to sustain.
What have you done for us lately?
McCain is running against Obama as a resume candidate, experience versus policy platform.
That is fine but, what has McCain done for anyone lately?
Most of the time at the RNC convention was spent discussing McCain's war service, forty years ago. Was McCain's record really more heroic than John Kerry's? Shouldn't someone point out that the same delegates who were praising war hero McCain were mocking Kerry's three purple hearts with band aids?
McCain spent five and a half years as a POW. Coincidentally, he spent about the same length of time bucking his party in the wake of losing the 2000 primary to establishment favorite George W. Bush.
Democrats should be pushing on this. McCain has had a very limited scope of interest in the Senate. He is by all accounts utterly uninterested in anything other than warfare. He bucked his party after Bush slimed him in the primaries with the 'black love child' talk. But ever since he realized that he had a chance to win the 2008 nomination he has been busy pandering to the party ideologues, no matter how nutty their ideas.
That is fine but, what has McCain done for anyone lately?
Most of the time at the RNC convention was spent discussing McCain's war service, forty years ago. Was McCain's record really more heroic than John Kerry's? Shouldn't someone point out that the same delegates who were praising war hero McCain were mocking Kerry's three purple hearts with band aids?McCain spent five and a half years as a POW. Coincidentally, he spent about the same length of time bucking his party in the wake of losing the 2000 primary to establishment favorite George W. Bush.
Democrats should be pushing on this. McCain has had a very limited scope of interest in the Senate. He is by all accounts utterly uninterested in anything other than warfare. He bucked his party after Bush slimed him in the primaries with the 'black love child' talk. But ever since he realized that he had a chance to win the 2008 nomination he has been busy pandering to the party ideologues, no matter how nutty their ideas.
Friday, September 5, 2008
How do you spend a quarter century in Washington without becomming an insider?
TPM riffs on Joe Klein.
Republican insiders tell me that McCain has a fragile temper and that in particular he cannot stand any suggestion that he has become corrupted by Washington politics himself.
Democrats should make more of this fracture line. McCain's campaign to clean up Washington started when he lost the 2000 primaries to George W. Bush and ended when he decided to run for President again.
McCain is the type of Republican that caused George W. Bush to derail his presidency. McCain was for an invasion of Iraq on September 12th.
Republican insiders tell me that McCain has a fragile temper and that in particular he cannot stand any suggestion that he has become corrupted by Washington politics himself.
Democrats should make more of this fracture line. McCain's campaign to clean up Washington started when he lost the 2000 primaries to George W. Bush and ended when he decided to run for President again.
McCain is the type of Republican that caused George W. Bush to derail his presidency. McCain was for an invasion of Iraq on September 12th.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Shouldn't a Pit Bull have credibility
the media loved Palin's speech: Palin comes out throwing punches - CNN.com
But did she do what she needed to do to connect to independent voters? I don't think so, the speech was yet another doubling down on Rove's old strategy of pandering to the Republican base.
This is not necessarily in McCain's best interests. If McCain is to win he needs to gain votes from the center. But it might well be in the interests of his advisors for whom it is much better that McCain guarantee a worst cas outcome of an honorable defeat rather than really take a gamble that might risk an Obama blow-out but provide a real chance of a McCain win.
Doubling down on the base was the safe move for McCain's handlers, but a bad move for McCain.
The speech itself played well in the hall. But since when has an acceptance speech not been accepted with rapturous enthusiasm? The problem with the speech from my point of view is that it was all attacks and sneers with no substance.
Palin is new on the national scene, her first priority with the speech should have been to establish credibility with the voters. The speech did play on her background of course, but that is different, that is making an emotional connection with the audience. An emotional connection is not credibility. Most American women seem to love Rosie O'Donnel, that does not mean she has credibility as a senator, let alone as Vice President.
When I hear an attack on someone I respect my first response is not to think less of the person being attacked, it is to ask why should I believe you instead of them. If the attack comes without proof points to substantiate the claims it is going to backfire. I will think more of the victim and less of the attacker.
The GOP knows this of course and it is the reason that they have been milking every drop of hostile media coveage for every last drop of sympathy. But sympathy is not respect either. For this particular gambit to work the voters would have to be convinced that the attacks came from Obama rather than the media, outside the committed supporters I don't think they are.
But did she do what she needed to do to connect to independent voters? I don't think so, the speech was yet another doubling down on Rove's old strategy of pandering to the Republican base.
This is not necessarily in McCain's best interests. If McCain is to win he needs to gain votes from the center. But it might well be in the interests of his advisors for whom it is much better that McCain guarantee a worst cas outcome of an honorable defeat rather than really take a gamble that might risk an Obama blow-out but provide a real chance of a McCain win.
Doubling down on the base was the safe move for McCain's handlers, but a bad move for McCain.
The speech itself played well in the hall. But since when has an acceptance speech not been accepted with rapturous enthusiasm? The problem with the speech from my point of view is that it was all attacks and sneers with no substance.
Palin is new on the national scene, her first priority with the speech should have been to establish credibility with the voters. The speech did play on her background of course, but that is different, that is making an emotional connection with the audience. An emotional connection is not credibility. Most American women seem to love Rosie O'Donnel, that does not mean she has credibility as a senator, let alone as Vice President.
When I hear an attack on someone I respect my first response is not to think less of the person being attacked, it is to ask why should I believe you instead of them. If the attack comes without proof points to substantiate the claims it is going to backfire. I will think more of the victim and less of the attacker.
The GOP knows this of course and it is the reason that they have been milking every drop of hostile media coveage for every last drop of sympathy. But sympathy is not respect either. For this particular gambit to work the voters would have to be convinced that the attacks came from Obama rather than the media, outside the committed supporters I don't think they are.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Sarah Palin, earmark queen
Seattle Times Newspaper
One side effect of the Palin nomination is that Americans in the lower 48 states are starting to understand that wages in Alaska are high and the state really does not need to top the list of federal earmarks year after year. This year Alsaka is demanding $197 million despite the state government having so much money that it is planning to give a $1,200 handout to every citizen living there in addition to the $2000 they get from the Alaska permanent fund.
This may not be a set of circumstances other Americans can understand.
One side effect of the Palin nomination is that Americans in the lower 48 states are starting to understand that wages in Alaska are high and the state really does not need to top the list of federal earmarks year after year. This year Alsaka is demanding $197 million despite the state government having so much money that it is planning to give a $1,200 handout to every citizen living there in addition to the $2000 they get from the Alaska permanent fund.
This may not be a set of circumstances other Americans can understand.
Obama to Appear on Fox on Thursday Night - The Caucus Blog - NYTimes.com
It is a brilliant move for Obama NYTimes.com.
Obama on the O'Reilly factor Thursday night is going to draw viewers away from McCain's big speech and more importantly step on the coverage of McCain's speech the next day.
Team Obama will point out that their guy is willing to appear on partisan attack do O'Reilly's show while McCain is afraid to appear on Larry King in case the questions are not softball enough.
O'Reilly is going to find the task much harder than Obama. If he comes across as blustering or intimidating, all Obama needs to do is to keep his cool and he wins.
Obama on the O'Reilly factor Thursday night is going to draw viewers away from McCain's big speech and more importantly step on the coverage of McCain's speech the next day.
Team Obama will point out that their guy is willing to appear on partisan attack do O'Reilly's show while McCain is afraid to appear on Larry King in case the questions are not softball enough.
O'Reilly is going to find the task much harder than Obama. If he comes across as blustering or intimidating, all Obama needs to do is to keep his cool and he wins.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Handling the Bristol Palin issue
As a rule, whenever we are told that something should not be an issue in an election, it is.
Bristol Palin's unwed pregnancy may be off limits for politicians, but it is certainly not off limits to the press. It provides a hook to write stories on Palin's line item veto of support for unwed mothers and her support for discredited 'abstinence only' sex education.
'Abstinence-only' sex education was already an issue in the swing state of Pennsylvania where Ed Rendel had just accepted federal money for abstinence only programs after years of refusing it. While the issue may energize the base in the deep south, it is a distinct liability in most of the swing states.
But the biggest problem for the Republicans is likely to be Obama's call to respect the privacy of the children. Coupled with the pre-existing truce for the duration of Gustav this is going to make it much harder for McCain to do what he has to do to win the race: return to the previous strategy of sneer and smear. But McCain cannot do that unless he can plausibly claim that the Democrats fired first.
Democrats should: hold fire and rebut any attempts by the GOP to claim that they have crossed the line.
Republicans should: stage a 'Tonkin gulf' incident, for example post their own incendiary comments on a well trafficked liberal blog and ascribe them to Obama's team.
Bristol Palin's unwed pregnancy may be off limits for politicians, but it is certainly not off limits to the press. It provides a hook to write stories on Palin's line item veto of support for unwed mothers and her support for discredited 'abstinence only' sex education.
'Abstinence-only' sex education was already an issue in the swing state of Pennsylvania where Ed Rendel had just accepted federal money for abstinence only programs after years of refusing it. While the issue may energize the base in the deep south, it is a distinct liability in most of the swing states.
But the biggest problem for the Republicans is likely to be Obama's call to respect the privacy of the children. Coupled with the pre-existing truce for the duration of Gustav this is going to make it much harder for McCain to do what he has to do to win the race: return to the previous strategy of sneer and smear. But McCain cannot do that unless he can plausibly claim that the Democrats fired first.
Democrats should: hold fire and rebut any attempts by the GOP to claim that they have crossed the line.
Republicans should: stage a 'Tonkin gulf' incident, for example post their own incendiary comments on a well trafficked liberal blog and ascribe them to Obama's team.
Talking Points Memo: You've Lost That Lovin' Feelin' ...
Josh Marshall thinks the McCain-Media love fest may be over.
I think he may be right, but my reasoning is somewhat different.
Once people have formed an opinion it is very difficult to persuade them to change it. This is particularly the case with subjective opinions where every new piece of information that might contradict the opinion is filtered by the opinion itself.
Once the press got the idea that McCain was an independent minded maverick, every piece of information to the contrary was either ignored or interpreted as further proof he is a maverick. That allowed him to perform a complete U-turn on the policy positions that had earned him the maverick label and embrace every Bush administration position without any press reports that candidate McCain mk2 was very different from the maverick McCain of 2000.
George W. Bush enjoyed a similarly privileged free ride in the establishment media until the disastrously botched response to Hurricane Katrina made it impossible for reporters to ignore the fact that Bush and his administration were utterly incompetent. And once they had reached that conclusion with respect to one aspect of Bush administration policy it became the new lens through which all Bush administration actions were interpreted.
The Palin selection appears to be McCain's version of Katrina. Whether the Palin pick is a good decision or not is now irrelevant: The damage is done, regardless of what McCain does from this point on there is simply no possibility that he can rebuild the old McCain maverick brand amongst the media. He is not going to get a free pass any more.
Its not just the decision itself, it is the way it was done that has offended the section of the press that mistook invitations to BBQs back at the ranch and long interviews on the Straight Talk Express for an implicit promise of continued insider access.
Democrats should: Focus on the Palin pick as being representative of McCain's likely future Supreme Court Nominations.
Republicans should: Stick to their current mistake, hope nothing else comes up and try to change the subject.
I think he may be right, but my reasoning is somewhat different.
Once people have formed an opinion it is very difficult to persuade them to change it. This is particularly the case with subjective opinions where every new piece of information that might contradict the opinion is filtered by the opinion itself.
Once the press got the idea that McCain was an independent minded maverick, every piece of information to the contrary was either ignored or interpreted as further proof he is a maverick. That allowed him to perform a complete U-turn on the policy positions that had earned him the maverick label and embrace every Bush administration position without any press reports that candidate McCain mk2 was very different from the maverick McCain of 2000.
George W. Bush enjoyed a similarly privileged free ride in the establishment media until the disastrously botched response to Hurricane Katrina made it impossible for reporters to ignore the fact that Bush and his administration were utterly incompetent. And once they had reached that conclusion with respect to one aspect of Bush administration policy it became the new lens through which all Bush administration actions were interpreted.
The Palin selection appears to be McCain's version of Katrina. Whether the Palin pick is a good decision or not is now irrelevant: The damage is done, regardless of what McCain does from this point on there is simply no possibility that he can rebuild the old McCain maverick brand amongst the media. He is not going to get a free pass any more.
Its not just the decision itself, it is the way it was done that has offended the section of the press that mistook invitations to BBQs back at the ranch and long interviews on the Straight Talk Express for an implicit promise of continued insider access.
Democrats should: Focus on the Palin pick as being representative of McCain's likely future Supreme Court Nominations.
Republicans should: Stick to their current mistake, hope nothing else comes up and try to change the subject.
The forgotten Libertarian Republicans
Matthew Yglesias reports on a visit to the Ron Paul supporters.
While the Religeous Right may love anti-abortion, book-burning Sarah Palin, the Libertarian wing of the party has much less to cheer about. Palin is pro-guns but that is about it as far as libertarians are concerned.
It is worth pointing out that unlike the Religious Right, the libertarians do have somewhere else to go: bob Barr and his Libertarian Party run.
The establishment media cannot understand the Republican party Authoritarian/Libertarian split, its a split based on policy and principles, not personality.
Ron Paul may be able to keep the Libertarians in the party fold by endorsing McCain, but it is hard to see why he would spend his scarce political capital on McCain when he could generate more by backing Barr.
Democrats should try to do exploit this division by highlighting civil liberties issues and demanding McCain explain whether he supports the 'unitary executive' theory that the Bush administration has promulgated to excuse illegal conduct.
Libertarian Republicans should consider whether they might be able to gain more influence if they adopted the stay-at-home tactics that the religious right have employed to such effect.
McCain Republicans should try to change the subject.
While the Religeous Right may love anti-abortion, book-burning Sarah Palin, the Libertarian wing of the party has much less to cheer about. Palin is pro-guns but that is about it as far as libertarians are concerned.
It is worth pointing out that unlike the Religious Right, the libertarians do have somewhere else to go: bob Barr and his Libertarian Party run.
The establishment media cannot understand the Republican party Authoritarian/Libertarian split, its a split based on policy and principles, not personality.
Ron Paul may be able to keep the Libertarians in the party fold by endorsing McCain, but it is hard to see why he would spend his scarce political capital on McCain when he could generate more by backing Barr.
Democrats should try to do exploit this division by highlighting civil liberties issues and demanding McCain explain whether he supports the 'unitary executive' theory that the Bush administration has promulgated to excuse illegal conduct.
Libertarian Republicans should consider whether they might be able to gain more influence if they adopted the stay-at-home tactics that the religious right have employed to such effect.
McCain Republicans should try to change the subject.
Forcing an error
For some time it has been increasingly obvious that the November election is Obama's to lose. While the national polls have remained close, Obama has remained ahead or even in every one of the swing states.
For the past two months the McCain team has been desperately trying to force Obama into making an error. First with the attacks on his patriotism, then with the race baiting 'celebrity ads' and now with the choice of Palin. The desired outcome being a macaca moment similar to the outburst from George Allen that cost him his Senate seat and the GOP control of the Senate.
The intended response from Obama soon becomes apparent. Whenever McCain attacks Obama's patriotism a group of McCain surrogates start attacking Obama for some imagined slight on McCain's war service. When no response was made to the race-baiting 'Celebrity' ad that framed Obama with sexually promicuous white women Paris Hilton and Britney Spears, the GOP attacked Obama for playing the race card.
This time it appears that the resentment that the GOP was attempting to mine was the deep seated resentment of many women to the way that they are dismissed as unqualified and incapable of holding tough jobs. The McCain camp would like to see Palin dismissed as an airhead former beauty queen.
Instead it appears that Palin has wrongfooted both parties. Like McCain, Palin has a compelling story. But unfortunately her's appears to have come from a soap opera.
Liberals would be well advised to avoid calling Palin an airhead, white trash or making any mention of Bristol's love child.
Conservatives would be well advised to try to change the subject.
For the past two months the McCain team has been desperately trying to force Obama into making an error. First with the attacks on his patriotism, then with the race baiting 'celebrity ads' and now with the choice of Palin. The desired outcome being a macaca moment similar to the outburst from George Allen that cost him his Senate seat and the GOP control of the Senate.
The intended response from Obama soon becomes apparent. Whenever McCain attacks Obama's patriotism a group of McCain surrogates start attacking Obama for some imagined slight on McCain's war service. When no response was made to the race-baiting 'Celebrity' ad that framed Obama with sexually promicuous white women Paris Hilton and Britney Spears, the GOP attacked Obama for playing the race card.
This time it appears that the resentment that the GOP was attempting to mine was the deep seated resentment of many women to the way that they are dismissed as unqualified and incapable of holding tough jobs. The McCain camp would like to see Palin dismissed as an airhead former beauty queen.
Instead it appears that Palin has wrongfooted both parties. Like McCain, Palin has a compelling story. But unfortunately her's appears to have come from a soap opera.
Liberals would be well advised to avoid calling Palin an airhead, white trash or making any mention of Bristol's love child.
Conservatives would be well advised to try to change the subject.
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